Oil prices: there will be winners and losers

Exporters are taking a hit, but falling oil prices will be a net positive for a (developed) world struggling with slowing growth, possibly adding 0.8% to the economic growth of most of the advanced economies, IMF chief Christine Lagarde explained. At a 5-year lowest, oil prices could indeed mechanically favor oil importing countries. This is in Europe where Germany finally escaped from recession that expectations are the highest. Current oil prices could strengthen a dynamic starting with a quantitative easing (QE) by the ECB. However the effect could also turn adverse by accelerating Europe’s shift from disinflation to deflation. So far this year 2014, said Eurostat, Europe’s global inflation decreased to a mere 0.3%. In the long term, most of the analysts think Europe’s leaders must do more – notably structural and job-friendly reforms – in order to get out of the “new mediocre”.