Germany’s the main conundrum for 2015

October 2014 quasi-correction on the financial markets occurred lest Germany’s economic growth likely slows in 2015, because of weaker demand in the EU and deepening commercial losses from the Ukraine-related sanctions and economic crisis in major partner Russia. The political instability, most visible in Greece with early legislative elections ahead and less visible in the euro area’s second biggest economy France, will be additional difficulties for the German economy in 2015, though the slump in oil prices is likely to provide some relief.

Yet the opinions about what to expect have never been so divergent. On the one hand, most of the analysts think Germany will still be the driving force behind the euro area’s reforms and recovery, not to mention a slightly higher pace of growth. On the other hand, a tiny portion of them are questioning the relevance of the German model, affirming that the lack of large-scale investment as a result of tight-by-constitution budgetary policies deprives the economies of both Germany and the EU of the fuel they need to take off at last. Such divergence shows uncertainty is mounting, one simple fact investors should put at the top of their 2015 issues-to-keep-an-eye-on list.