Is there a triple favorable trend for Hollande?

After the terrorist attacks of which the presidential crisis management has satisfied the majority of the French people, President François Hollande may have found there a first favorable political circumstance. The gathering of a large part of the people and the resulting “Union Sacrée” has provided Hollande with a fertile ground to win back the national political scene. His record leap of 21 percentage points in the most recent poll confirmed the trend, at least in the short term. The second fortunate circumstance has been the 60 percent drop in oil prices – an “oil counter-crisis,” Hollande said – that should send France’s economic growth to a positive 1 percent in 2015. Finally and thirdly, the quick weakening of the euro against the US dollar is expected to significantly improve France’s trade balance. However, basing economic policy on a priori favorable international circumstances could prove risky in the end. Such range of exogenous factors will not remove the necessary structural reforms and the ongoing deep issues within the French economy.

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