“March 31st is the deadline. It has to mean something and the decisions don’t get easier after March 31st,” State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf said, giving the talks a 50-50 chance of success to reach an agreement on the future of Iran’s nuclear program. According to Cyceon, the ongoing Saudi air strikes in Yemen and threats to intervene militarily directly with boots on the ground, plus the statements by a number of Arab and Turkish officials expressing their concern that Iran’s seeking regional domination are all evidence an accord in Lausanne today remains possible. The more those who oppose Iran’s ambitions make noise, the more likely an agreement’s approaching because such noise is mainly to prevent an agreement from being signed, analysts said.
Their greatest fear is that the United States and Iran could finally get on well together at the expense of what has prevailed for the last 30 years or so, namely an alliance uniting the USA and Arab countries against Iran. In fact, talks’ failure may not be so positive for those countries as Iran could engage in more active nuclear developments for military purpose as a result, and it’s even truer considering the next US administration after President Barack Obama’s will likely be less open to discussions with Iran. Beyond political considerations, there is some money at stake too since an accord in Geneva would possibly add everyday 1 million barrels from Iran to the already glutted oil market.