After agreement with Iran, convincing others

Historic. Disastrous. Two opposing viewpoints emerged about the signature in Vienna of an agreement between the P5+1 and Tehran paving the way after a 12-year-long negotiation to a lifting of banking and economic sanctions in exchange for a drastic verifiable reduction in production capabilities and the end of any progress of Iran’s nuclear program. Almost unanimously hailed as historic, several incorrigibles found it disastrous.

Primarily Israel whose Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu affirmed the agreement was reached by the P5+1 “at any price.” After disappointment, the primary goal remains to prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons since Israel thinks the agreement is more a step forward than a solid barrier for Iran’s nuclear ambitions. On the Sunni Arab monarchies’ side, particularly Saudi Arabia, the reaction has been very discreet so far but discontent does predominate. If over there one thinks Iran is still far from having military nuclear capabilities which could pose an impending threat against vital interests, one fears however that the agreement makes Iran the undisputed regional power in the long run.

The Sunni powers hope without much confidence that the agreement they consider as “extremely dangerous” will encourage Iran to act with less “interference”. Thus, in the immediate future, one should expect changes in the diplomatic relations between Israel, the Gulf monarchies and the US. Their fear that from “historic” this agreement might rather be “a fool’s” instead could trigger an arms race, namely the exact opposite effect from the one desired by the signatory powers. The bulk of the work will now consist of convincing the skeptics that this agreement will really prevent Iran from going nuclear. There it is the real mission impossible.