There’s a fact that stands out when you analyze the reactions that followed the signature of the “historic” agreement between Tehran and the P5+1 on Iran’s nuclear program. Indeed, this is not the relief of having avoided the Middle East an arms race of which the consequences would be multiple if not apocalyptical, but clearly how much money can advanced economies and the BRICS hope to make following the lifting of the economic sanctions imposed on Iran.
Our first assessment confirmed three main parameters. First, the BRICS should benefit, in priority, from the new situation, particularly Russia, India and China. Second, the lifting of sanctions is not easy especially for western countries which abided by them to the point that they have none or very weak contacts with Iran’s economy. European countries like France and Germany have lost very much financially and politically considering the business ties they enjoyed ante-sanctions with Iran. Third, having strong ties within Iran’s political apparatus is indispensable with a view to establishing sound economic cooperation. This is mainly why Russia somehow is roaring ahead, and whose one can think it’s been the real dealmaker in Vienna.
Finally, in light of Iran’s size and means – 80 million inhabitants and a very loose difficult-to-assess estimate of $150 to 600 billion to be unfrozen – Iran does represent an interesting opportunity and its geostrategic importance makes it a key player de facto. But the excitement that accessing Iran’s economy generated also seems to highlight the weakness of a world economy haunted by the “new mediocre” of economic growth and that is desperately searching for some new high growth field.