The consequences of the downing of a Russian Su-24 by 2 Turkish F-16s on November 24, 2015 still have much potential to develop into another major crisis. From the data that’s been made available so far, Cyceon analysts, like most of the analysts around the world, Western ones included, assume that most objectively Russia can’t be this time really held responsible for a violation of Turkey’s airspace and that Turkey has possibly overreacted. According to the Russian government, the Su-24 flew 1 km from the Turkish border into the Syrian territory.
Data shows that in the worst case scenario, the Russian aircraft flew a maximum of 10 to 20 seconds in Turkey’s airspace towards Syria, therefore insufficient to justify such air interception by Turkey. Not only the 2 Turkish F-16s gunned the Su-24 down with air-air missiles of which the Su-24 wasn’t equipped with, but the 2 Turkish aircrafts, Turkish government’s map showed, violated Syria’s airspace while chasing the Su-24. It is logical that NATO supports Turkey, but most of the sources said it is a support of principle because Turkey’s a NATO member country rather than any strong consensus of who was at fault in this very risky situation.
Here are the maps we used:
- Turkish government’s map,
- Russian government’s map,
- Le Courrier de Russie (LCDR)’s map,
- 2-version Wikipedia’s map.
If additional evidence susceptible to modify this article’s content is made public, it will be added so that this article remains compliant with what happened.