For several months, the deterioration of western countries’ general security situation has confirmed the parallelization of public opinions from both sides of the Atlantic Ocean. This phenomenon, particularly true if one compares the United States with France, is unprecedented in its temporal simultaneity.
From the one hand, candidate Donald Trump remains at very high rates of favorable opinions in his race for the GOP’s 2016 presidential nomination. On the other hand, Marine Le Pen and the Front National have achieved the tri-polarization of France’s politics. If the economic conditions are currently opposite between the US’ and France’s especially about the unemployment rate, the civilizational fear as for the continuity of their ways of life, and more generally of the western way of life, has grown up to the point that it culminates at the top of the US and French peoples’ concerns: terrorism, immigration, insecurity almost compete equally with economic and social issues.
The economy remains of course a central topic but the civilizational matter may decide the next presidential elections’ outcome, both in America and in France. If concerns change, the economy will change as well. Plunged into historic disarray and assailed by doubt, the West and its youth may give history its primacy back over the economy. Economic and financial actors will have to study, understand and adjust to the nascent long-term upheaval led by the “9/11 generation”.
N.B.: In April 2015, Cyceon listed Marine Le Pen as the 4th world’s most powerful politician able to shape the future. The results of the regional elections confirmed our assumption.