As concerns keep growing on a longer than expected slowdown of the Chinese economy and ongoing low oil prices, the optimistic forecast that had been on the agenda in January 2015 appears no longer valid one year later. Pessimism has spread through the ranks of usually optimistic commentators and analysts. The so-called impending doom next door might finally be a sign that things aren’t so bad after all.
First, what’s changed compared to previous crisis, particularly 2008, is that the business world seems to have prepared itself for some tough times ahead instead of dancing blindly on the brink of collapse. New rules have been enforced, banks’ capital has doubled, systemic risk has lowered. Second, thanks to emerging markets’ difficulties and low oil prices, advanced economies, especially the United States, are actually benefiting very much from current circumstances.
According to Brochard Finance’s latest analysis, all this “provides with a historic transfer of wealth from oil producing countries to oil consuming countries. Such unforeseen transfer could amount to up to $2,500 billion per year,” As a result, cash is coming, so are financial opportunities.