With at least 3 wins in Super Tuesday II, Republican candidate Donald Trump has built stronger momentum towards his nomination for the general election. Yet a number of commentators explained Trump may have to go through a brokered convention in which one of his two remaining contenders, Ted Cruz or John Kasich, may eventually get the nomination on the basis that their more consensual views will give them better chances against very likely Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton.
So far, votes, statistics, demographics actually contradicted with such a hypothesis. 24 hours ago, Ted Cruz was 90 delegates away from Trump, today he’s 255 not to mention that he won neither Florida nor Ohio which are essential in view of the general election. John Kasich has won the strategic state of Ohio with 10 percentage points ahead of Trump. However Kasich has been the governor of Ohio since 2011 – a sure advantage – and has gained 142 delegates so far, 519 less than Trump.
According to demographics, Trump has got votes from the full spectrum of the GOP electorate among very different states like Illinois, Florida and North Carolina, something crucial that Cruz or Kasich failed to achieve. Whatever the GOP establishment wants – or doesn’t want – it has to see the facts before deciding to all in with Cruz or Kasich, a move that could result in the GOP’s split and increased risk of defeat in November against Clinton.