UK’s exit from the European Union (EU) – the Brexit – could cost the UK economy £100 billion and 950,000 jobs by 2020, pointed out a PwC-made report commissioned by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) whose 4 in 5 of its members, who employ nearly 7 million people, want the UK to remain in the EU. “This analysis shows very clearly why leaving the EU would be a real blow for living standards, jobs and growth,” Carolyn Fairbairn, CBI Director-General, said in a statement. “Even under optimistic assumptions, an exit triggers serious economic disruption. (…) Leaving the EU would mean a smaller economy in 2030,” Fairbairn stressed.
Another report delivered by the London School of Economics (LSE)’s Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) explained that the Brexit would cause a fall in UK national income of 1.3% under optimistic assumptions, doubling to 2.6% under pessimistic assumptions. Whatever the scenario like a free trade agreement (FTA) with the EU, the CEP agreed with the CBI on the fact that the question is not whether Brexit will cost the UK in economic terms but how much. If the British public vote to leave, Brexit will have wide-scale, rather negative, implications for businesses across the industrial spectrum, Oxford Economics confirmed.
On the contrary, “our central view is that the negative economic impact of Brexit would be relatively small,” replied credit agency Moody’s who thus provided some support to Brexit supporters who denounced the latest reports as “baseless scaremongering.” According to Vote Leave’s business council, YouGov poll of over 1,000 SMEs revealed that only 14% believe that the EU makes it easier for their business to employ people while 31% believe the EU makes it harder for them to employ people.
In the end, reports showed there’s a consensus that the Brexit will negatively impact the UK economy. However the multiplication of reports conveying similar conclusions might energize the pro-Brexit camp arguing that it’s an insincere concerted action in favor of keeping the UK in the EU. Brexit is gaining ground at 49% and the most recent survey revealed that many of the most densely populated parts of the UK are staunchly in favor of Brexit.