Donald Trump may win in November because of National Security


The views expressed below are solely those of the author.

Charles Rault is Cyceon's Founder and Chief Analyst. "A Veteran in information analysis" according to US weekly Newsweek, Rault deals with data shared by a network of around 70 correspondents.

“It’s the economy, stupid.” This short sentence summarized the election to the White House of Democrat Bill Clinton in 1992, husband of the Democratic candidate for the presidential election of 2016. The primacy of the economy, growth and employment in the US presidential election had since never been questioned while relegating international relations, geopolitics or global security to the status of secondary concerns.

This was the main reason for the non-reelection of George H. Bush, veteran, former director of the CIA, “winner” of the first Gulf War and, with Ronald Reagan, of the Cold War. An amateur saxophonist and former Arkansas Governor became the surprise President for two terms before leaving the Oval office to another Bush, George W. Except that in 2016, patatra…, data collected and analyzed by Cyceon showed a revolution is taking place.

National Security is on a par with – or even exceeds – the economy in the concerns of a growing portion of the US public opinion. Donald Trump grasped the timely association that grows in the minds of voters between the terrorist threat and the civilizational anxiety that agitates not only the US but also – and especially – Europe.

The exasperation of the Americans when they see that their Military, yet unrivaled in firepower, would not be able to treat tens of thousands of terrorists operating in the Iraq/Syria region globally summarizes why Trump may become the next President of the United States. Because Hillary Clinton was Secretary of State in the Obama administration just as the situation was dramatically worsening over there but also because Trump opted for a pragmatic discourse – one that is more open vis-à-vis Russia – with which a majority of Americans – often first-time voters and younger than one thinks – seems to agree: terrorism must be eradicated by all means and in priority.

In France, the West’s prime target of Islamist terrorism, a majority now shares this view, in contradiction with the mainstream standpoint. Yet, the data is clear. The Western electorate is leaning more and more to the right side of politics simultaneously on both sides of the Atlantic, and the economy is on a par with national security.

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