More than a year ago, Cyceon warned its readers to not underestimate the candidacy of Donald Trump as he was only starting the campaign of the primaries of the Republican Party (GOP). Since then, Trump won the nomination and could well confound all forecasts until November 8, 2016, general election day when he faces his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton.
The mid-August low point has gradually faded up to the point that Trump is now averaging within the 3 percentage points margin of error indicating that it’s now impossible to predict the winner of November with certainty – the same certainty with which many political analysts predicted three weeks ago that Clinton would be the “obvious winner.”
A CNN/ORC poll on September 6, 2016 pointed out that Trump could win against Clinton with 45% of the vote against 43% in a four-way presidential race with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 7% and environmentalist Jill Stein at 2%. The week before that, a Fox News poll showed that Trump was trailing only 2 points behind Clinton.
As Cyceon stated repeatedly, the electoral popularity of Trump is still underestimated because many voters don’t publicly admit that they support him. The current dynamics shows that Trump is garnering support while Clinton is getting growing indifference if not distrust. Only nine weeks till Election Day and everything remains possible.