Voters a growing unknown in the political equation

On the financial markets as in politics, uncertainty is the most feared and destabilizing factor. As the global environment becomes more complex and tensions grow, the electorate – the citizen – becomes a more and more hard-to-assess parameter.

In proportion to the importance taken by social networks and the internet in its information process, the electorate appears more and more impervious to the mainstream narrative, this way increasing its unpredictability and strengthening its mistrust of traditional media. Maybe because they broadcast an approximate representation of reality, the latter aren’t any longer able to understand reality as they’d have distanced themselves too far from it.

Deprived of the citizen’s trust, they can’t gather reliable information anymore. Like the “Brexit” in the United Kingdom, the referendum against the peace agreement with FARC in Colombia, the popular mobilization against the settlement of “migrants” in Europe or the fast-growing “anti-system” political offer, the electorate – the citizen – emerges increasingly like the major unknown in “political risk.”

The more the “system” favors a choice rather than another one, the more the electorate is tempted to choose the opposite. From that viewpoint, the “Brexit” is a case study of which the lessons will be known over the long term but of which we can extract a fundamental point that is that from a certain level of exercise of power, the “system” produces just the opposite of what it seeks.