If polls and those who comment them have voiced for weeks their certainty that Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton will become the next POTUS, investors and financial markets have not excluded her rival Republican Donald Trump’s victory yet since they continued to warn about the potential side-effects of it.
“In the event Trump wins, I have no doubt in my mind the market tanks,” said billionaire Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban. “The stakes are extremely high,” stressed billionaire Facebook co-founder Dustin Moskovitz who recently pledged USD 20 million to Democratic groups “to defeat Trump”. Like the one the City opted for to campaign against the Brexit, this “fear” strategy could prove counterproductive as well.
First, it could legitimate a bit more the popular perception according to which Clinton is Wall Street’s candidate. Second, it could contradictorily incite the “silent majority” who clearly dislikes Wall Street and still copes with the 2008 financial crisis to vote for Trump in order to give a chance to his “change” pledge that seems to worry the “1%” so much.
The repeated and premature announcement of a post-Brexit apocalypse that hasn’t happened (yet) destroyed the City’s credibility in the minefield of politics; weakening in advance Wall Street’s scaremongering – sincere or not – in the event Trump got elected to the White House.
Third, Wall Street could be underestimating the side-effect of its activism with significant voter transference from a number of pro-Bernie Sanders supporters, who lost to Clinton in the Democratic primary, in favor of Trump.