Should one fear Election Day or profit from it?


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There’s a deep mood change going on the now nervous financial markets after the SP500 fell for the 7th straight day. Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton still appears to be likely to win, wrote Goldman Sachs but her Republican rival Donald Trump has been making a huge comeback in the polls.

370 economists, including 8 Nobel Prize laureates, urged voters not to vote for Trump in a letter that in fact might have contributed to his rise in voting intentions. Whoever attacks Trump finally strengthens him, and this has been true from the very beginning of his campaign.

On Wall Street, even more than on the Street, many can now be heard saying that “all the options are on the table,” and the Trump option has clearly become a “buy” at least to hedge against the risk. After Cyceon warned in December 2015 that politics would likely rock the economy, investors shall simply stay away from the markets in the coming days as it may be a bit too late to bet on safe haven assets.

Whatever the result on November 8th and whoever will be the next POTUS, the dynamic and adaptive nature of the US economy will remain largely untouched. The two most significant moves would most likely come from the Fed with a rate hike as soon as next month (December 2016) although the Fed has left rates unchanged for now, and from a Trump administration that would question the decades-long Free Trade course of the US trade policy abroad.

Whatever happens, relieve the pressure and turn all this into an opportunity. America will be America.

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