Three reasons for caution over Russian interference

Firstly, the FBI – in charge of counterintelligence inside the United States – disagrees with the CIA, and this is a crucial fact that shows a consensus has yet to be found about whether the Russian government has really influenced the US presidential race in favor of Donald Trump or not.

Secondly, a number of former CIA operatives and analysts, most of them no stalwart supporters of Trump, said it may be a bit too early, quite daring to tell today that the Russians did interfere. That’s grosso modo what the CIA report pointed out by the way, namely that there is “high confidence” Russia “has tried to help Trump win the presidency.”

Therefore, if the report confirmed Russia’s strong interest in the election’s outcome, it didn’t assert that Russia succeeded in impacting the outcome. Former members of the US intelligence community (IC) had pointed out the strong support for Trump within both the IC and their own neighborhood across the United States, long before Trump became the GOP nominee or Russia was accused of interfering.

Thirdly, without questioning their objective viewpoint and experience, a number of people at the top of the CIA leadership know they should likely be replaced as soon as Trump is sworn in as the 45th POTUS on January 20, 2016.