After 2016 that was really a year full of dangers in line with Cyceon’s assessment, 2017 could prove a year of both increasing risks and deep changes. Two most unexpected events took the world by surprise: the Brexit in June 2016 and Donald Trump’s election as the 45th POTUS in November 2016.
The formal start of the Brexit process scheduled for March 2017 should likely bring more instability on the financial markets than the vote itself which they had somehow anticipated. Indeed, while British Prime Minister Theresa May could opt for a “hard” Brexit, the European Union (EU) seems unimpressed and ready to make the UK pay a heavy price for its exit.
Another major uncertainty will be the upcoming administration of President Trump whom speeches and nominations have spooked many and about whom most of the experts know little. If Trump’s plan for large tax cuts has been very well received on Wall Street, there remain strong concerns over his future relations with the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the much publicized change he said he would bring about the US foreign trade policy.
Therefore, how China’s economic growth will perform in such a new environment between trade challenges and geopolitical issues will determine to a large extent the positive or negative trend of global economy in 2017.