Euro would fall by 10% if Le Pen wins


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The euro and oil prices have a significant downside potential on the assumption of a victory of Marine Le Pen in France’s 2017 presidential race as the euro could fall by 10 cents to about USD 0.98 within a few weeks and oil could drop by 5-10%, bank JPMorgan explained in a note sent to its customers.

In the unlikely scenario of a Le Pen presidency with support from the government and Parliament, the 10-year Bund could get close to zero base points and the yield gap between France and Germany could jump to 200 base points, added the note. Cyceon reminds that the facts have not (yet) confirmed previous forecasts about Brexit and Donald Trump.

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