European political risk could be underestimated

Cyceon has reviewed numerous documents released by official institutions and/or groups from the banking-finance sector. The conclusion comes down to an overall underestimated political risk.

For example, if a victory of Marine Le Pen in the French presidential election is more unlikely than likely in May 2017, the probability is still “average” and “growing” rather than “low” or even “very low”.

According to Cyceon, the current context of political scandals plus serious ongoing violence and public disorder increases this probability every day. A major terrorist attack and/or sudden financial downturn in the eurozone would significantly boost this probability.

Considering the circumstances and the significant volatility of the social, economic and security environments, Cyceon thinks that the assessment made by most analysts seems to diminish the impact of it on an already “uptight” public opinion.

Without having the extent of the popular wave in the United States that sent Donald Trump to the White House, the candidate Marine Le Pen draws a growing and real interest from all portions of the French population.

However, it is difficult to measure the scale and, above all, the concrete results of it on Election Day. Finally, the widespread assumption that a majority of the French wants to remain in the European Union (EU) is refuted by Cyceon‘s data which rather sets the vote in favor of France’s exit from the EU (Frexit) at about 51%-55% of the total vote.