Cyceon has reviewed numerous documents released by official institutions and/or groups from the banking-finance sector. The conclusion comes down to an overall underestimated political risk.
For example, if a victory of Marine Le Pen in the French presidential election is more unlikely than likely in May 2017, the probability is still “average” and “growing” rather than “low” or even “very low”.
According to Cyceon, the current context of political scandals plus serious ongoing violence and public disorder increases this probability every day. A major terrorist attack and/or sudden financial downturn in the eurozone would significantly boost this probability.