Donald Trump’s difficulties are a political lesson

While the fear index (VIX) surged in Wall Street amid fears of both an election surprise in France and a more serious political blockade than expected in the US, the difficulties faced by Donald Trump in his plan to repeal Obamacare are a lesson for all political leaders and their successors.

Elected against almost the whole establishment by Americans who wish to “drain the swamp” in Washington DC, Donald Trump clearly meets various obstacles to strengthen his presidential authority. Democratic “resistance” in Congress, however, does not seem as strong as that encountered within federal institutions – apart from armed forces and intelligence agencies.

It is mainly Donald Trump’s apparent failure to form a strong majority within the Republicans (GOP) that for the time being prevents the realization of one of his main promises.

In fact, Trump seems to be only partly responsible for such a situation, since his Republican majority is itself divided into two, namely, on the one hand, the “nationalists” who support Trump, and on the other hand the “globalists”, particularly those close to Senator John McCain and more likely to follow a neoconservative line.

It seems possible that this standstill on the Obamacare is more a message from the neoconservative fringe opposed to the upheavals sought by Trump in the foreign policy area than a real determination with a view to preserving the main achievement of Barack Obama’s two mandates.

The main lesson might be that it is not enough to win the presidency, a strong and coherent parliamentary majority is required. Meanwhile, political uncertainty is increasing and does not augur well for the global economy and stability.