As a result of the fallout from the Trump administration’s decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Deal signed in July 2015, Iran is trying to save the latter and is flexing some muscles.
While most European companies are disengaging from Iran after having expressed their wish to develop large-scale activities there, Tehran hopes to dissuade them and does not intend to let Washington dictate who can or cannot do business in Iran.
On July 5, 2018, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said that “the Iranian nation would resist the illegal actions of the United States and would not allow Washington’s policy to affect Tehran’s relations with the world.”
At the same time, Revolutionary Guards Quds Force commander Gen. Qasem Soleimani confirmed that his country “is ready to implement a policy that hinders regional oil exports if the United States bans Iranian oil sale.”
In response, Capt. Bill Urban, a spokesman for the US Central Command underlined that everything would be done in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz to “ensure the freedom of navigation and the free flow of commerce wherever international law allows.”
Additional tension could therefore affect the price of oil that for WTI crude rose from 69 dollars to 72 dollars per barrel that is an increase of about 4.2% since May 8, 2018 when Donald Trump denounced the Nuclear Deal.
According to Cyceon, if Iran can hope for good relations with Russia and China, not having the West as a customer and/or as an investor indeed deprives Iran of a real potential for long-term development, a development that pleases his Sunni adversaries, especially Saudi Arabia.
Domestic political considerations are also at stake.