More sources of political, economic instability in the medium term

The vote in favor of Brexit in the UK in June 2016 followed by the election of Donald Trump at the White House in November 2016 marked the beginning of an uninterrupted and growing series of developments with high potential for uncertainty.

More than three years after their victory, the pro-Brexit are still fighting hard with the anti-Brexit while a significant part of the British people is radicalizing itself since the Brexit – which was democratically voted – has not yet materialized.

Similarly, in the United States, where Donald Trump’s mandate still unleashes passions as if he had just been elected by surprise, and whose foreign and trade policy, from China to Iran, gives rise to growing concern over stock markets and weakens prospects for global economic growth.

Quite a same trend’s growing in Germany where conservative Chancellor Angela Merkel is being overtaken left and right and especially by the AFD party whose record scores in East Germany suggest a disruption of the national political landscape in the medium-long term.

The decrease in German exports signals the end of a decade of great prosperity, potentially paving the way for less docility on the part of European partners such as France and Italy, where the “populist” right constitutes also a serious challenger of the “establishment” for the next elections.

From Cyceon’s standpoint, the important development lies in the transformation in just a few years – and thus rather fast – of centers of stability into sources of increased instability and uncertainty.