Geert Wilders isn’t so strong

With 97% of votes counted after the general election in the Netherlands, incumbent Prime Minister Mark Rutte‘s centre-right VVD party has won 33 out of 150 seats, a loss of eight seats from the previous parliament. Anti-immigration Freedom party PPV of Geert Wilders was in […]

On the eve of Brexit, UK economy appears quite strong

The likelihood of a vote in favor of the United Kingdom (UK)’s exit from the European Union (EU) was expected as an obvious disaster for 99% of economists, analysts and bankers. In June 2016, the UK did vote for the Brexit, launching a complex unprecedented...

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VIX: A meaningful discrepancy?

As political risk is mounting in Europe, just 24 hours away from the Netherlands’ general election and five weeks away from the French presidential election, Cyceon noticed a possibly meaningful discrepancy between the call options price of the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) and its calculation...

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Frexit’s likelihood very low, not impossible

The likelihood of a country other than Greece leaving the European Union (EU)’s single currency area remains very low, but has the potential to increase materially this year given the rise of anti-EU political parties in the region, Moody’s Investors Service said in a report. […]

Again, no real consensus on the ECB’s policy

Following ECB top chiefs’ latest press conference, some analysts thought that the ECB signaled the accommodative monetary policy (QE) will be ending while some other analysts said the ECB just opted for business as usual, meaning a smooth continuation of the QE. “Based on our...

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No more cash transactions in EU?

“Existing national restrictions on cash payments vary widely. The higher the threshold, the more the convenience of cash transaction is preserved, but the higher the risk that criminal cash transactions fall through the net,” said an assessment by the European Commission (EC) that is studying […]

Europe still Gazprom’s priority market

“Last year we delivered 179.3 billion cubic meters of gas to Europe. This is 12.5 percent more than in 2015. Our market share of the European market has increased to 34 percent,” said Gazprom Deputy Chairman Aleksandr Medvedev. As a result of Gazprom being the […]

Political risk declines in the USA, jumps in Europe

In a first one-hour presidential speech before the US Congress, President Donald Trump significantly lowered the political risk of which potential for instability Cyceon warned about. Described as “presidential”, “smart” and “dynamic,” Trump gave a speech welcomed as a great relief by his Republican majority....

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