Likely long-term buying opportunities in the Chinese market



On June 12, 2015, the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) jumped to 5,166 points while its US counterpart Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose to 17,898 points at an even more moderate pace.

Three-and-a-half years ago, therefore, it was on the Chinese side that investors were looking for strong growth potential, at least in the value of their quoted shares as the recovery of the US economy backed global growth.

Today, the cards have clearly changed hands since the situation is more or less reversed with the SSE which has fallen to 2,598 points, down 49.71 percent since its top of June 2015, and with the DJIA which despite entering the correction zone in October 2018, however, remains at a historically high level at 24,688 points, up 37.93 percent in the same period.

Against the backdrop, the gradual decline in Chinese economic growth and President Xi Jinping’s ambition to turn his country from the workshop of the world into a consumer economy have contributed to this sharp stock market depreciation of Chinese assets even though the peak of 2015 appears a posteriori as a typical buyer excess.

Considering the long-term potential of China and taking into account the ups and downs of its trade negotiations with the United States, it seems relevant to look now for possible good buying opportunities in the Chinese market, especially in the consumer and energy sectors.

Stock markets are increasingly nearing the correction zone



The question of whether we are about to experience a stock market crash is on everyone’s lips. In the United States, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has lost 7 percent in less than a month and is dangerously close to a correction.

In Europe, the German DAX index lost 9 percent and its French counterpart the CAC index lost 10 percent indicating that the continent is already in corrective territory. In Asia, the Hong Kong HSI index showed a significant downward trend as of September 10, and the Shanghai SSE index yet dropped a bit less by 6.7 percent over the same period, but fell sharply by 23.5 percent over the last twelve months.

Against the backdrop, several issues participate in this correction, something that analysts fear it could turn into a depression after nearly nine years of uninterrupted rise in developed markets.

First, Chinese growth is weakening, then, the euro area is experiencing tensions with the first ever rejection of the Italian budget by the European Commission, finally trade tensions are increasing since the election of Donald Trump at the White House.

However, the fundamental reason is twofold and comes from the United States with a US economy so attractive that it draws foreign capital to the detriment of other countries, especially emerging and emerged ones, and most importantly with the rate hikes unanimously envisaged by the US Federal Reserve (Fed)’s members according to the minutes of the latest FOMC.